Tuesday, October 16, 2007
THE REAGINS ERA BEGINS
As you know, Bill Stoneman has stepped aside as general manager, and director of player development Tony Reagins will be assuming the mantle.
There will be time to assess Stoneman's tenure, and we'll probably get to that soon. But suffice to say that in Stoneman's eight seasons as GM, the Angels went 703-593 (.542), won three division titles, one wild card championship, and the championship of the world.
Was he perfect? No one is, but he obviously put our organization in a position of great strength, with a productive farm system supplementing and feeding a successful collection of veterans. The results are unassailable.
Will he be missed? I don't know. He will still be on as a consultant, and obviously has confidence in Tony Reagins' ability to move up. Of course, we don't know what Reagins will be like, and if he shares Stoneman's philosophy of caution. Some assistants make great GMs; some top out at assistant and fail when taking on the big job. But given the strength of the organization, I'll give Tony some doubt. We'll get into what's on Reagins' plate as time goes on.
For now, let's thank Bill Stoneman, a prime architect of the best stretch in our team's history.
There will be time to assess Stoneman's tenure, and we'll probably get to that soon. But suffice to say that in Stoneman's eight seasons as GM, the Angels went 703-593 (.542), won three division titles, one wild card championship, and the championship of the world.
Was he perfect? No one is, but he obviously put our organization in a position of great strength, with a productive farm system supplementing and feeding a successful collection of veterans. The results are unassailable.
Will he be missed? I don't know. He will still be on as a consultant, and obviously has confidence in Tony Reagins' ability to move up. Of course, we don't know what Reagins will be like, and if he shares Stoneman's philosophy of caution. Some assistants make great GMs; some top out at assistant and fail when taking on the big job. But given the strength of the organization, I'll give Tony some doubt. We'll get into what's on Reagins' plate as time goes on.
For now, let's thank Bill Stoneman, a prime architect of the best stretch in our team's history.
Labels: Bill Stoneman
Friday, July 27, 2007
BIG TEIX
Mike DiGiovanna and Ben Bolch:
Now, first of all, Mark Teixeira is an excellent hitter and superb defender. He almost certainly is an upgrade on Casey Kotchman right now (if for no other reason than he's not a platoon player). But how much would he help this team over the balance of the season?
Over his career (four-and-a-half seasons), I estimate Teixeira to be roughly +.035 runs per plate appearance better than the average hitter. The Angels currently use a platoon; in their careers, Kotch is +.005 for his career against RHP and Q is +.037 against LHP.
Now, this isn't entirely fair to Casey, as it includes his disease-plagued 2006 numbers, but, for the moment, let's assume that this represents his true talent level. There are 57 games from August 1 forward, and I think we can safely assume four plate appearances per game. That's 228 plate appearances left to go in the season from the first base spot. With 229 plate appearances, at his career levels, Mark Teixeira would give us around +8 runs above average.
That's right: a whole eight runs.
76% of the Angels' PA this year have come against right-handed pitching, so of the 228 remaining PA at 1B, 173 would go to Kotchman and 55 to Quinlan (Q could of course rack up some appearances at other positions). Based on their career rates, that would give us +1 run from Kotchman and +2 runs from Robb. So three total -- five less than Teixeira: half of a win.
Now, we're almost certainly underselling Kotchman here, possibly overselling Quinlan, and possibly underselling Big Tex. Kotch so far this year is +.045 vs. RHP, Q this year is -.006, and Teixeira overall is +.053. Over 228 PA, that's +12 from Teixeira against +8 from Casey and -1 from Quinlan: that's still a difference of only five runs.
(I know I'm ignoring defense here, but as Kotch and Tex are both Gold Glove contenders, I think that's going to be a wash.)
Now, let's look at some other issues: Teixeira is far pricier than Kotchman. Teixeira is three years older than Kotchman. Teixeira is a free agent afterthis year 2008, and is considered to be a favorite to bolt for the east coast, from which he hails (a Maryland native, he played college ball at Georgia Tech). Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras, who says stupid crap about Tex being worth $30M per year.
And, oh yeah: this isn't even a straight-up deal, we'd also be asked to give up one of Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders! A team that just lost Bartolo Colon forever and has Santana -- who led the team in wins last year! -- down in AAA to work out his kinks. A team that only has four major league starters at the moment, and if it traded Saunders, might only have three (four once Santana straightens out). How the hell does this seem like a good idea to anybody? We're going to give up one of our few remaining starters and three years of Casey Kotchman to get five extra runs out of Mark Teixeira?! COME ON!
(Now, I know we'd also have Tex next season before he bolted. And maybe Kendry Morales would be ready to step in for him if we didn't re-sign him. I'm just not sure that the difference between Casey and Teixeira next year would be worth the cost, especially given that we'd be down one of our five planned 2008 starting pitchers.)
It doesn't matter, the Braves are gonna top our offer, anyway. I'll be glad to get that monster out of our division.
Though there is an outside chance they could acquire Chicago White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye, it appears to be Mark Teixeira or bust for the Angels ...Okay, seriously, what is this nonsense?
...
Angels first baseman Casey Kotchman would be part of any package to acquire Teixeira, and the Rangers, who had zeroed in on Ervin Santana before the struggling right-hander was demoted to triple-A Salt Lake on July 18, are believed to be comfortable with left-hander Joe Saunders as part of a deal.
But the Rangers want a third player and are scouring the Angels' farm system to determine who to ask for. If Texas wants one of the Angels' elite prospects, such as third baseman Brandon Wood or double-A pitcher Nick Adenhart, trade talks would fizzle. But if Texas would accept a lesser prospect, a deal would be more likely.
The Rangers are also believed to be interested in outfielders Reggie Willits, Nathan Haynes or Terry Evans as the third player in the deal.
Now, first of all, Mark Teixeira is an excellent hitter and superb defender. He almost certainly is an upgrade on Casey Kotchman right now (if for no other reason than he's not a platoon player). But how much would he help this team over the balance of the season?
Over his career (four-and-a-half seasons), I estimate Teixeira to be roughly +.035 runs per plate appearance better than the average hitter. The Angels currently use a platoon; in their careers, Kotch is +.005 for his career against RHP and Q is +.037 against LHP.
Now, this isn't entirely fair to Casey, as it includes his disease-plagued 2006 numbers, but, for the moment, let's assume that this represents his true talent level. There are 57 games from August 1 forward, and I think we can safely assume four plate appearances per game. That's 228 plate appearances left to go in the season from the first base spot. With 229 plate appearances, at his career levels, Mark Teixeira would give us around +8 runs above average.
That's right: a whole eight runs.
76% of the Angels' PA this year have come against right-handed pitching, so of the 228 remaining PA at 1B, 173 would go to Kotchman and 55 to Quinlan (Q could of course rack up some appearances at other positions). Based on their career rates, that would give us +1 run from Kotchman and +2 runs from Robb. So three total -- five less than Teixeira: half of a win.
Now, we're almost certainly underselling Kotchman here, possibly overselling Quinlan, and possibly underselling Big Tex. Kotch so far this year is +.045 vs. RHP, Q this year is -.006, and Teixeira overall is +.053. Over 228 PA, that's +12 from Teixeira against +8 from Casey and -1 from Quinlan: that's still a difference of only five runs.
(I know I'm ignoring defense here, but as Kotch and Tex are both Gold Glove contenders, I think that's going to be a wash.)
Now, let's look at some other issues: Teixeira is far pricier than Kotchman. Teixeira is three years older than Kotchman. Teixeira is a free agent after
And, oh yeah: this isn't even a straight-up deal, we'd also be asked to give up one of Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders! A team that just lost Bartolo Colon forever and has Santana -- who led the team in wins last year! -- down in AAA to work out his kinks. A team that only has four major league starters at the moment, and if it traded Saunders, might only have three (four once Santana straightens out). How the hell does this seem like a good idea to anybody? We're going to give up one of our few remaining starters and three years of Casey Kotchman to get five extra runs out of Mark Teixeira?! COME ON!
(Now, I know we'd also have Tex next season before he bolted. And maybe Kendry Morales would be ready to step in for him if we didn't re-sign him. I'm just not sure that the difference between Casey and Teixeira next year would be worth the cost, especially given that we'd be down one of our five planned 2008 starting pitchers.)
It doesn't matter, the Braves are gonna top our offer, anyway. I'll be glad to get that monster out of our division.
Labels: Bill Stoneman, Casey Kotchman, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Mark Teixeira, Robb Quinlan, Scott Boras
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
LOOKING FORWARD
As the midpoint of the season draws near, rumors begin to swirl about what, if anything, the Angels will and should do to secure their lead in the West.
However, the most imminent and likely rumor has to do with dispatching someone; the Yankees, as has been reported all over the Halosphere, have expressed interest in Shea Hillenbrand. It's hard to argue that the Angels really need Shea at this point (or that they ever did, really), but, nonetheless, we are reportedly uneasy with trading him while Garret Anderson resides on the DL and Casey Kotchman's near future is uncertain due to his concussion.
Signing Hillenbrand was a panic move in light of Juan Rivera's injury, of course. An understandable panic move, but one that was likely unnecessary (as I argued before the season). Given that he is being out-produced by both Reggie Willits and Robb Quinlan, I hold to this position.
Still, I understand wanting to make sure Casey is okay before moving forward. But I have no reservations with moving him. Kendry Morales is a better use of the roster spot.
In addition to ridding ourselves of Hillenbrand, there is talk of the Angels going out to get Adam Dunn. This is far more complicated.
Dunn certainly is an intriguing player. He has a ton of power and draws a lot of walks, two things our offense could use. But he's also a poor defender and, most likely, an ordinary baserunner (at best), and he strikes out a lot. However, being in the AL would allow him to DH, removing the poor defense from consideration, and you can live with the strikeouts when he produces like he can (a career OPS+ of 128, 134 so far this season). Dunn is an elite hitter who has never played in late summer games of particular significance, so he might really shine in a spotlight.
But, even outside of pondering what we'd have to give up (Joe Saunders and Hainley Staitia and someone else, perhaps?), he would create something of a logjam once Garret and Rivera return from injury. Rivera is about to start taking batting practice, and if he can return, even at his career 115-OPS+ level, he still would help the team considerably at bat, and with his solid defense and outstanding arm would provide a great service by relieving our corner outfielders. Dunn might be able to give Vlad a break as a DH twice a month or something, but that's far from ideal.
Reggie Willits has proven he belongs in the lineup; the Angels aren't going to bench a healthy Garret Anderson (though assuming health from him may be a case of counting chickens before they hatch) and Juan Rivera has earned playing time, as well. Though I wouldn't be adverse to acquiring Dunn if the price were right, I don't see Stoneman making such a move that could disrupt our current "offensive continuity" until he knows more about the condition of Garret and Juan.
Now, if from a month from now, neither one of those guys is healthy enough to produce, then we can revisit it. But as of this moment, I don't see anything developing on that front, and that doesn't really bother me.
I'm actually far more concerned about our bullpen, which we can discuss later this week.
However, the most imminent and likely rumor has to do with dispatching someone; the Yankees, as has been reported all over the Halosphere, have expressed interest in Shea Hillenbrand. It's hard to argue that the Angels really need Shea at this point (or that they ever did, really), but, nonetheless, we are reportedly uneasy with trading him while Garret Anderson resides on the DL and Casey Kotchman's near future is uncertain due to his concussion.
Signing Hillenbrand was a panic move in light of Juan Rivera's injury, of course. An understandable panic move, but one that was likely unnecessary (as I argued before the season). Given that he is being out-produced by both Reggie Willits and Robb Quinlan, I hold to this position.
Still, I understand wanting to make sure Casey is okay before moving forward. But I have no reservations with moving him. Kendry Morales is a better use of the roster spot.
In addition to ridding ourselves of Hillenbrand, there is talk of the Angels going out to get Adam Dunn. This is far more complicated.
Dunn certainly is an intriguing player. He has a ton of power and draws a lot of walks, two things our offense could use. But he's also a poor defender and, most likely, an ordinary baserunner (at best), and he strikes out a lot. However, being in the AL would allow him to DH, removing the poor defense from consideration, and you can live with the strikeouts when he produces like he can (a career OPS+ of 128, 134 so far this season). Dunn is an elite hitter who has never played in late summer games of particular significance, so he might really shine in a spotlight.
But, even outside of pondering what we'd have to give up (Joe Saunders and Hainley Staitia and someone else, perhaps?), he would create something of a logjam once Garret and Rivera return from injury. Rivera is about to start taking batting practice, and if he can return, even at his career 115-OPS+ level, he still would help the team considerably at bat, and with his solid defense and outstanding arm would provide a great service by relieving our corner outfielders. Dunn might be able to give Vlad a break as a DH twice a month or something, but that's far from ideal.
Reggie Willits has proven he belongs in the lineup; the Angels aren't going to bench a healthy Garret Anderson (though assuming health from him may be a case of counting chickens before they hatch) and Juan Rivera has earned playing time, as well. Though I wouldn't be adverse to acquiring Dunn if the price were right, I don't see Stoneman making such a move that could disrupt our current "offensive continuity" until he knows more about the condition of Garret and Juan.
Now, if from a month from now, neither one of those guys is healthy enough to produce, then we can revisit it. But as of this moment, I don't see anything developing on that front, and that doesn't really bother me.
I'm actually far more concerned about our bullpen, which we can discuss later this week.
Labels: a real bummer, Bill Stoneman, Casey Kotchman, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, Robb Quinlan, trade rumors
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
THE DRAFTS OF BILL STONEMAN
I don't know how I've managed to go two weeks without saying anything; I guess that's what happens when the team is playing well and there's nothing to complain about and no problems to diagnose.
But, as this week is the amateur draft, I thought it might be a good time to feature some draft-related material.
This is the first entry, and looks at the first five drafts the Angels made under Bill Stoneman. I didn't want to go past 2004, as it's far too early to say much of anything about the last two drafts. In fact, it's practically impossible to say anything about 2004, either, but it was the first draft with Eddie Bane in the organization and we got at least one major leaguer out of it, so we can take a cursory look.
There are various sources for draft info online, the two best of which (to my knowledge) are at Baseball Reference and The Baseball
Cube.
I'm not really going to evaluate the drafts in a systematic way (the Baseball Cube has a rudimentary draft rating system based on the major league playing time of those drafted, which is a rough starting point I will reference despite its flaws and near uselessness for recent drafts; see it for 2000 here), just take a look at who we drafted, who we could have drafted, and how it all turned out. The list of "could haves" is far from inclusive, as I just went through the first twenty rounds each year and grabbed some recognizable names.
Also, I'm not going to link to every single player I mention, as I usually do, as life is short.
Here we go.
2000
First Round: The Angels had two picks in the round; the 10th and 20th. Stoneman grabbed Joe Torres at 10 and Chris Bootcheck at 20.
Who Else Was Available: Most everyone picked between Torres and Bootcheck has been a disappointment, save one: Chase Utley, who may well be the best overall second baseman in the game right now. The Angels had just installed Adam Kennedy at second, so maybe Utley wasn't as high a priority because of that, but so far he's the pick of the round.
No one outrageously special was taken after Bootcheck; Boof Bonser went one pick later, but he has yet to pan out (though he still could, of course), and Adam Wainwright and Aaron Heilman (who didn't sign with the Twins) came later in the round. Dustin Moseley and Kelly Johnson were two intriguing later picks. The second round saw the Cubs select Bobby Hill (who the Angels had drafted but not signed out of high school) and the Pads take Xavier Nady.
Others Picked of Note: Tommy Murphy got picked in the third round, a pitcher/shortstop at the time. Matt Hensley in the 10th, but the rose so far has been Mike Napoli, somehow only the second- or third-best player taken in the 17th round (Josh Willingham, Rich Harden).
The Angels also grabbed Bobby Jenks in the fifth, and you all know how much good that did us.
Other Available Players of Note: Grady Sizemore (3rd), David DeJesus (4th), Dontrelle Willis (8), Brandon Webb (8), Edwin Encarnacion (9), Brad Hawpe (11), Freddy Sanchez (11), James Shields (16).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 19th
Summary: Despite finding the gem in Napoli in the middle rounds, this draft would have to be considered a disappointment. The only other player to live up to expectations, to any degree, is Bobby Jenks, who has done it all for the White Sox. The world would be interesting if we had drafted Chase Utley, a local product out of Pasadena and UCLA (imagine Utley at second and Howie at third), and we are just one of 29 teams to have missed out on the likes of Sizemore, Willis, and Webb.
2001
First Round: Once again, the Angels had two picks in the first round, and took Casey Kotchman at 13 and Jeff Mathis at 33.
Who Else Was Available: Gabe Gross went a couple of picks after Casey, as did Jason Bulger. The two most intriguing picks between Kotch and Mathis, though, were Oakland's back-to-back picks of Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Bonderman. The Angels had actually drafted Crosby out of high school, but didn't sign him. Noah Lowry went 30th.
After the Mathis pick, the best pick, and what may end up being the best pick of the first round, was David Wright.
The most notable player picked in between Mathis and the Angel second-round pick is JJ Hardy.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got Dallas McPherson with that second-round choice, so, his back notwithstanding, they weren't really complaining. Steven Shell and Jake Woods were taken in the third, Nick Gorneault in the 19th, but the only other picks to make the majors (beyond Woods) were Steve Andrade, who did so as a Royal, and Matt Brown, who sipped coffee earlier this year.
Other Available Players of Note: Danny Haren (2), Edwin Jackson (6), Chad Tracy (7), Dan Johnson (7), Kevin Youkilis (8), Dan Uggla (11), Chris Young the Outfielder (16), Jonny Gomes (18), Zach Duke (19).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 13th
Summary: This is the draft that put the Angels on the prospect map. Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson toplined prospect lists for the next few years, and were the first three picks taken. Though the idea of having Bobby Crosby or Jeremy Bonderman is intriguing, I can't say the Angels were wrong to stay in the family and grab Casey Kotchman. In retrospect, David Wright would have been a much better pick than Jeff Mathis, but Mathis comes from the Tom Kotchman Florida Pipeline that also brought us Casey, Howie Kendrick, and Scot Shields.
However, this was a top-heavy draft, and it looks like only one guy will pan out. Steve Shell could end up in the bullpen, and maybe Matt Brown will become a new Robb Quinlan down the line, but that's not much booty relative to all the prospects we had lined up from this draft just a couple of years ago. Prospect attrition is harsh, and no matter what the BPro guys tell you, it happens to hitters as well as pitchers. You load up as much as you can and see who survives the gauntlet.
2002
First Round: Joe Saunders with the 12th pick.
Who Else Was Available: The seven players taken right after Saunders: Khalil Greene, Russ Adams, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, and James Loney. Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, and Mark Teahen all went later in the round.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got only one other major league player in this draft, but he may turn out to be a doozy: Howie Kendrick in the 10th.
Other Available Players of Note: Elijah Dukes (3), Curtis Granderson (3), Delwyn Young (4), John Maine (6), Scott Olsen (6), Pat Neshek (6), Joel Zumaya (11), Ryan Shealy (11), Brandon McCarthy (17), Russell Martin (17), Kameron Loe (20).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 20th
Summary: Saunders is a credit to the organization now, but an injury not long after signing delayed his ascent. Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels would have been very interesting first-round picks, and there was a lot of intruiguing talent taken at the bottom of the round.
Getting Howie was a coup, but the rest of the draft was completely devoid of prospects for the Angels; the only other name that pops out at all is Aaron Peel, who is stagnated at AA.
2003
First Round: Brandon Wood, 23rd.
Who Else Was Available: Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin. Some intriguing names, but none as intriguing as Wood.
Others Picked of Note: Sean Rodriguez in the third, Reggie Willits in the seventh.
Other Available Players of Note: Tom Gorzelanny (2), Andre Ethier (2), Chris Ray (3), Ryan Garko (3), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Kevin Kouzmanoff (6), Anthony Reyes (15), Ian Kinsler (17).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 25th
Summary: Wood has justified his draft position to this point, even accounting for his early struggles at AAA. Sean Rodriguez and Willits appear to be good picks, but guys like Bob Zimmerman, Von Stertzbach, and Daniel Davidson have washed out a bit. No one else has emerged from the class.
In October, 2003, Eddie Bane took over as scouting director.
2004
First Round: Jered Weaver's price dropped him to 12th, where the Angels caught him.
Who Else Was Available: Stephen Drew went three picks later. Other notable first-rounders were Josh Fields, Taylor Tankersley, and Huston Street.
Others Picked of Note: Weaver's the only one to make the majors out of this young class, but the Angels picked up a first-round talent in Nick Adenhart (14th round) and pilfered Mark Trumbo in the 18th. Hainley Statia was drafted in the ninth, Stephen Marek was grabbed in the 40th round. Nick Green went in the 35th.
Other Available Players of Note: Dustin Pedroia (2), Adam Lind (3), Chris Iannetta (4), Casey Janssen (4), Cla Meredith (6),
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 11th
Summary: Weaver was a gift, but the Angels picked up a lot of other intriguing names. It's far too early to say who the true finds were, but Adenhart and Marek may be real bargains, and in addition to Staitia, Freddy Sandoval has shown something. The Angels didn't have any picks between the first and fourth rounds, so this draft could end up being even more impressive once you see who was available.
Adding It All Up
What does this mean?
Well, by my count, Stoneman has drafted three-and-a-half regulars (Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, and Willits), one surefire rotation starter (Weaver), one swingman/potential rotation starter (Saunders), and one top position player prospect (Wood). A couple of back-of-the-bullpen types, too (Bootcheck, Woods) and a top starting prospect (Adenhart). Add in faded prospects like McPherson (injury) and Mathis (struggles), and that about rounds it up.
How did the Angels do in the five years prior?
I won't walk you through it year-by-year, but from 1995 through 1999, and looking at it from the perspective of the year 2002, the Angels drafted two regulars (Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus), one top starter (Jarrod Washburn), and one top pitching prospect/productive rookie (John Lackey). Robb Quinlan and Scot Shields were in the organization, both upcoming (Shields debuted briefly in 2001). Other notables that didn't add up to much, and who had mostly washed out by 2002, were Brian Cooper, Justin Baughman, Scot Schoeneweis, Matt Wise, and Alfredo Amezaga.
I'd say Stoneman's drafts compare pretty well to that group, especially considering that the highest pick Stoneman has had to work with was the 10th in his first year, and the previous regime had two top three picks that were close to no-brainers (Erstad at #1 and Glaus at #3).
The first five drafts under Stoneman haven't been particularly deep, but his draft legacy for these years is going to rest on Kotchman, Kendrick, and Weaver primarily, but with Napoli and Adenhart likely candidates to boost it up. Even if Mathis never amounts to anything or if McPherson's injuries keep him on the sidelines, the success of the above (and others) could be pretty impressive. Add in a formidable international scouting program, and you have the recipe for success that has kept and is likely to keep the Angels competitive for a pennant year in and year out.
But, as this week is the amateur draft, I thought it might be a good time to feature some draft-related material.
This is the first entry, and looks at the first five drafts the Angels made under Bill Stoneman. I didn't want to go past 2004, as it's far too early to say much of anything about the last two drafts. In fact, it's practically impossible to say anything about 2004, either, but it was the first draft with Eddie Bane in the organization and we got at least one major leaguer out of it, so we can take a cursory look.
There are various sources for draft info online, the two best of which (to my knowledge) are at Baseball Reference and The Baseball
Cube.
I'm not really going to evaluate the drafts in a systematic way (the Baseball Cube has a rudimentary draft rating system based on the major league playing time of those drafted, which is a rough starting point I will reference despite its flaws and near uselessness for recent drafts; see it for 2000 here), just take a look at who we drafted, who we could have drafted, and how it all turned out. The list of "could haves" is far from inclusive, as I just went through the first twenty rounds each year and grabbed some recognizable names.
Also, I'm not going to link to every single player I mention, as I usually do, as life is short.
Here we go.
2000
First Round: The Angels had two picks in the round; the 10th and 20th. Stoneman grabbed Joe Torres at 10 and Chris Bootcheck at 20.
Who Else Was Available: Most everyone picked between Torres and Bootcheck has been a disappointment, save one: Chase Utley, who may well be the best overall second baseman in the game right now. The Angels had just installed Adam Kennedy at second, so maybe Utley wasn't as high a priority because of that, but so far he's the pick of the round.
No one outrageously special was taken after Bootcheck; Boof Bonser went one pick later, but he has yet to pan out (though he still could, of course), and Adam Wainwright and Aaron Heilman (who didn't sign with the Twins) came later in the round. Dustin Moseley and Kelly Johnson were two intriguing later picks. The second round saw the Cubs select Bobby Hill (who the Angels had drafted but not signed out of high school) and the Pads take Xavier Nady.
Others Picked of Note: Tommy Murphy got picked in the third round, a pitcher/shortstop at the time. Matt Hensley in the 10th, but the rose so far has been Mike Napoli, somehow only the second- or third-best player taken in the 17th round (Josh Willingham, Rich Harden).
The Angels also grabbed Bobby Jenks in the fifth, and you all know how much good that did us.
Other Available Players of Note: Grady Sizemore (3rd), David DeJesus (4th), Dontrelle Willis (8), Brandon Webb (8), Edwin Encarnacion (9), Brad Hawpe (11), Freddy Sanchez (11), James Shields (16).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 19th
Summary: Despite finding the gem in Napoli in the middle rounds, this draft would have to be considered a disappointment. The only other player to live up to expectations, to any degree, is Bobby Jenks, who has done it all for the White Sox. The world would be interesting if we had drafted Chase Utley, a local product out of Pasadena and UCLA (imagine Utley at second and Howie at third), and we are just one of 29 teams to have missed out on the likes of Sizemore, Willis, and Webb.
2001
First Round: Once again, the Angels had two picks in the first round, and took Casey Kotchman at 13 and Jeff Mathis at 33.
Who Else Was Available: Gabe Gross went a couple of picks after Casey, as did Jason Bulger. The two most intriguing picks between Kotch and Mathis, though, were Oakland's back-to-back picks of Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Bonderman. The Angels had actually drafted Crosby out of high school, but didn't sign him. Noah Lowry went 30th.
After the Mathis pick, the best pick, and what may end up being the best pick of the first round, was David Wright.
The most notable player picked in between Mathis and the Angel second-round pick is JJ Hardy.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got Dallas McPherson with that second-round choice, so, his back notwithstanding, they weren't really complaining. Steven Shell and Jake Woods were taken in the third, Nick Gorneault in the 19th, but the only other picks to make the majors (beyond Woods) were Steve Andrade, who did so as a Royal, and Matt Brown, who sipped coffee earlier this year.
Other Available Players of Note: Danny Haren (2), Edwin Jackson (6), Chad Tracy (7), Dan Johnson (7), Kevin Youkilis (8), Dan Uggla (11), Chris Young the Outfielder (16), Jonny Gomes (18), Zach Duke (19).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 13th
Summary: This is the draft that put the Angels on the prospect map. Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson toplined prospect lists for the next few years, and were the first three picks taken. Though the idea of having Bobby Crosby or Jeremy Bonderman is intriguing, I can't say the Angels were wrong to stay in the family and grab Casey Kotchman. In retrospect, David Wright would have been a much better pick than Jeff Mathis, but Mathis comes from the Tom Kotchman Florida Pipeline that also brought us Casey, Howie Kendrick, and Scot Shields.
However, this was a top-heavy draft, and it looks like only one guy will pan out. Steve Shell could end up in the bullpen, and maybe Matt Brown will become a new Robb Quinlan down the line, but that's not much booty relative to all the prospects we had lined up from this draft just a couple of years ago. Prospect attrition is harsh, and no matter what the BPro guys tell you, it happens to hitters as well as pitchers. You load up as much as you can and see who survives the gauntlet.
2002
First Round: Joe Saunders with the 12th pick.
Who Else Was Available: The seven players taken right after Saunders: Khalil Greene, Russ Adams, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, and James Loney. Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, and Mark Teahen all went later in the round.
Others Picked of Note: The Angels got only one other major league player in this draft, but he may turn out to be a doozy: Howie Kendrick in the 10th.
Other Available Players of Note: Elijah Dukes (3), Curtis Granderson (3), Delwyn Young (4), John Maine (6), Scott Olsen (6), Pat Neshek (6), Joel Zumaya (11), Ryan Shealy (11), Brandon McCarthy (17), Russell Martin (17), Kameron Loe (20).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 20th
Summary: Saunders is a credit to the organization now, but an injury not long after signing delayed his ascent. Scott Kazmir or Cole Hamels would have been very interesting first-round picks, and there was a lot of intruiguing talent taken at the bottom of the round.
Getting Howie was a coup, but the rest of the draft was completely devoid of prospects for the Angels; the only other name that pops out at all is Aaron Peel, who is stagnated at AA.
2003
First Round: Brandon Wood, 23rd.
Who Else Was Available: Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin. Some intriguing names, but none as intriguing as Wood.
Others Picked of Note: Sean Rodriguez in the third, Reggie Willits in the seventh.
Other Available Players of Note: Tom Gorzelanny (2), Andre Ethier (2), Chris Ray (3), Ryan Garko (3), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Kevin Kouzmanoff (6), Anthony Reyes (15), Ian Kinsler (17).
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 25th
Summary: Wood has justified his draft position to this point, even accounting for his early struggles at AAA. Sean Rodriguez and Willits appear to be good picks, but guys like Bob Zimmerman, Von Stertzbach, and Daniel Davidson have washed out a bit. No one else has emerged from the class.
In October, 2003, Eddie Bane took over as scouting director.
2004
First Round: Jered Weaver's price dropped him to 12th, where the Angels caught him.
Who Else Was Available: Stephen Drew went three picks later. Other notable first-rounders were Josh Fields, Taylor Tankersley, and Huston Street.
Others Picked of Note: Weaver's the only one to make the majors out of this young class, but the Angels picked up a first-round talent in Nick Adenhart (14th round) and pilfered Mark Trumbo in the 18th. Hainley Statia was drafted in the ninth, Stephen Marek was grabbed in the 40th round. Nick Green went in the 35th.
Other Available Players of Note: Dustin Pedroia (2), Adam Lind (3), Chris Iannetta (4), Casey Janssen (4), Cla Meredith (6),
Baseball Cube Ranking:: 11th
Summary: Weaver was a gift, but the Angels picked up a lot of other intriguing names. It's far too early to say who the true finds were, but Adenhart and Marek may be real bargains, and in addition to Staitia, Freddy Sandoval has shown something. The Angels didn't have any picks between the first and fourth rounds, so this draft could end up being even more impressive once you see who was available.
Adding It All Up
What does this mean?
Well, by my count, Stoneman has drafted three-and-a-half regulars (Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, and Willits), one surefire rotation starter (Weaver), one swingman/potential rotation starter (Saunders), and one top position player prospect (Wood). A couple of back-of-the-bullpen types, too (Bootcheck, Woods) and a top starting prospect (Adenhart). Add in faded prospects like McPherson (injury) and Mathis (struggles), and that about rounds it up.
How did the Angels do in the five years prior?
I won't walk you through it year-by-year, but from 1995 through 1999, and looking at it from the perspective of the year 2002, the Angels drafted two regulars (Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus), one top starter (Jarrod Washburn), and one top pitching prospect/productive rookie (John Lackey). Robb Quinlan and Scot Shields were in the organization, both upcoming (Shields debuted briefly in 2001). Other notables that didn't add up to much, and who had mostly washed out by 2002, were Brian Cooper, Justin Baughman, Scot Schoeneweis, Matt Wise, and Alfredo Amezaga.
I'd say Stoneman's drafts compare pretty well to that group, especially considering that the highest pick Stoneman has had to work with was the 10th in his first year, and the previous regime had two top three picks that were close to no-brainers (Erstad at #1 and Glaus at #3).
The first five drafts under Stoneman haven't been particularly deep, but his draft legacy for these years is going to rest on Kotchman, Kendrick, and Weaver primarily, but with Napoli and Adenhart likely candidates to boost it up. Even if Mathis never amounts to anything or if McPherson's injuries keep him on the sidelines, the success of the above (and others) could be pretty impressive. Add in a formidable international scouting program, and you have the recipe for success that has kept and is likely to keep the Angels competitive for a pennant year in and year out.
Labels: Bill Stoneman, draft, Eddie Bane, prospects
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
WE ARE IDIOTS, POSSIBLY
It is alleged that the Angels have offered Alfonso Soriano a six-year deal worth $80M.
Mike DiGiovanna, in the above-linked report, also says:
Soriano, for all his physical gifts, is a poor defensive second baseman; there is every reason to believe that Kendrick could make a good defensive first baseman with enough time, but why waste his talents there? He's already shown good athleticism at the keystone, and his bat will be much more valuable in the middle of the infield than on a corner. And such a move -- wrapping up Soriano for six years -- also negates the existence of Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales, most likely putting Kotchman on the trading block (when his value, coming off his debilitating sickness, will be at its lowest) and consigning Morales, who showed some good leather around the bag last year, to DH work if he sticks around.
Not to mention that this plan doesn't address center field or third base. The only real way pursuing Soriano makes sense is if he is envisioned as either a center or left fielder. He took fairly well to left field last year, and with his speed and arm might even hold his own in center. If not, he can always play the corner, with Garret being the primary DH and Reggie Willits being the late-inning defensive caddy for Juan Rivera in center.
That's not the best-sounding defense in the world, but at least there's some pop in the bats, and Reggie Willits to salve some wounds.
I also wonder if Soriano would really go for a six-year deal in lieu of a five-year that is worth more dollars per year. I'm not convinced he's actually worth the ~$13M we may have offered, but I think perceptions of his ability are such that he can pull down more than Aramis Ramirez's $15M per.
I'm beginning to worry a bit about what this team has up its sleeve. After thankfully losing out on the ill-advised pursuit of Paul Konerko last winter, it almost seems like Bill Stoneman wants to do something for the sake of saying he did. But tossing money at old players who would block our cheaper (and soon to be better) players ... that ain't any kind of plan. So hopefully it isn't ours.
It is alleged that the Angels have offered Alfonso Soriano a six-year deal worth $80M.
Mike DiGiovanna, in the above-linked report, also says:
Though the Angels appear set at Soriano's two primary positions, left field (Garret Anderson) and second base (Howie Kendrick), they could move Kendrick to first base, Anderson to designated hitter or open up center field for Soriano.Seitz is all over the, shall we say, suboptimal nature of this, but on parsing the language it sounds much more like speculation than an actual plan.
Soriano, for all his physical gifts, is a poor defensive second baseman; there is every reason to believe that Kendrick could make a good defensive first baseman with enough time, but why waste his talents there? He's already shown good athleticism at the keystone, and his bat will be much more valuable in the middle of the infield than on a corner. And such a move -- wrapping up Soriano for six years -- also negates the existence of Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales, most likely putting Kotchman on the trading block (when his value, coming off his debilitating sickness, will be at its lowest) and consigning Morales, who showed some good leather around the bag last year, to DH work if he sticks around.
Not to mention that this plan doesn't address center field or third base. The only real way pursuing Soriano makes sense is if he is envisioned as either a center or left fielder. He took fairly well to left field last year, and with his speed and arm might even hold his own in center. If not, he can always play the corner, with Garret being the primary DH and Reggie Willits being the late-inning defensive caddy for Juan Rivera in center.
That's not the best-sounding defense in the world, but at least there's some pop in the bats, and Reggie Willits to salve some wounds.
I also wonder if Soriano would really go for a six-year deal in lieu of a five-year that is worth more dollars per year. I'm not convinced he's actually worth the ~$13M we may have offered, but I think perceptions of his ability are such that he can pull down more than Aramis Ramirez's $15M per.
I'm beginning to worry a bit about what this team has up its sleeve. After thankfully losing out on the ill-advised pursuit of Paul Konerko last winter, it almost seems like Bill Stoneman wants to do something for the sake of saying he did. But tossing money at old players who would block our cheaper (and soon to be better) players ... that ain't any kind of plan. So hopefully it isn't ours.
Labels: Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Bill Stoneman, Casey Kotchman, hysteria, Kendry Morales, Paul Konerko, Reggie Willits
