Chronicles of the Lads

I've had my worries about the Angels this year -- I know that we're better than Seattle, but our play has been inconsistent and dispiriting at times. But our three-game sweep in the Emerald City certainly was good news, and one certainly can't complain about a five-game lead on August 30. Only one division leader in baseball (Boston) has a larger lead today, and even that's by only one game.

Of course, not everything went right, and our Lads have to keep up their game over the next month. John Lackey, incredibly, was able to dominate despite suffering from strep throat; I haven't had that since elementary school, but I certainly remember it being terrible, so that's an impressive outing all the more. Hopefully he gets better soon, as I can't really imagine him being able to keep it up while suffering illness.

And the enigma of Ervin Santana only continued this week, and hit what is likely his nadir. It's hard to imagine The Magic returning to the rotation as long as the division is still in dispute, but youneverknow, though even if he doesn't we may see him throwing some junk innings out of the pen. As it's been all season, I'm hard-pressed to come up with any explanation's for Ervin's deterioration. But watching him on Tuesday reminded me of ... well, me. I was at the driving range this past weekend, and my entire swing was out of sync, and nothing I could do could get me back on track. It was my worst trip to a range ever, including when I was a small child. Ervin on the mound reminded me of that experience.

We were counting on Ervin this year, and the plan has always been to count on him next year, as well. That appears to be in question, though given his track record, youth, and raw material, I would assume that he'll go into spring training with at least an opportunity to regain his rotation spot. I'm pulling for him, of course; it's always shocking to see any player, especially a young and (presumably) healthy pitcher, fall apart, and hopefully the king's men can put him back together.

Jered Weaver finished off the sweep.. His command was a bit better than his previous start, as he cut down his walks infinitely, but he gave up one more earned run and struck out the same number of batters despite pitching one more whole inning. Jered's ERA+ of 114 ranks 20th out of the 44 AL pitchers with 125+ innings pitched, and tied for 37th out of the 96 major league pitchers above that threshold. Of course, this is Jered's age 24 season, and at that same age, John Lackey was posting an ERA+ of 92, Ervin Santana one of 67, and Bartolo Colon an 83 in less than 100 innings. Jered's brother, Jeff, whose presence on the mound against us Tuesday meant that I never lost hope after Ervin got buried in the first, did manage a 111 that season, fairly close to Jered's mark. However, Jeff only posted an 89 the season before, unlike Jered and his 171.

Jered Weaver has now thrown 256 innings, posting an ERA+ of 136, with rather strong peripherals. Amongst starting pitchers in major league history who had thrown between 200 and 300 innings through the age of 24, Jered's ERA+ is tied for 7th out of 157. His innings pitched total ranks just above the middle of that group, at 65th, yet he manages to rank 10th in strikeouts, 24th in least walks issued, and 4th in wins -- it helps that he 9th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 18th in least walks per 9.

Of course, the season's not over, so we can look at this again over the winter. And there is a long-term question with his health, as there is with any young pitcher. Note Aaron Sele, whose first two season resemble Jered's first two in certain respects. He followed those two seasons with a season where he only managed six starts, presumably due to medical reasons. He was never the same pitcher, and his story is not unique.

At any rate, just as Jered is positioned to have a productive career if he stays on track, so also our team is now very much in the driver's seat as they look to win their third division title in the past four seasons.

Labels: Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, John Lackey

I've been horribly remiss in not posting links to this in the past, but Angels Win has a monthly interview with Eddie Bane. Nothing terribly revelatory in this month's edition -- no Matt Harvey questions, for instance -- and Bane is certainly representing the organization, so you never read him saying stuff like "This guy sucks, we really screwed the pooch drafting him." But he talks about various things the organization like about different prospects, including lower-level guys who are somewhat off the radar and often spoken of. Past editions are all there below the most recent one, so catch up.

Labels: Eddie Bane, prospects

It's been one month today since the last one; this is likely the penultimate edition of the year.

The BB-Ref organizational stats are linked in the POSITION and PITCHER headers.

POSITION PLAYERS

Michael Collins, 1B, AA Arkansas, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    394  98 17   3   5  11  65   5   4  249 292 345
7/24   296  66 14   1   3   8  52   5   4  223 269 307
6/26   229  44 12   1   2   5  45   4   2  192 241 279
5/21   127  17  7   0   1   2  25   0   1  136 194 216  
5/1     75  12  2   0   1   2  16   0   1  160 203 227  

It's been a good month for Collins, relatively. No matter what happens, there's a good chance he'll repeat the level, but since his first 127 AB he's been hitting 303/326/446. That's nothing special in the Texas League, but at least it's something. He will need to reacquaint himself with ball four, regardless.


Hank Conger, C, A Cedar Rapids, BB/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    262  73 17   0   9  19  45   9   4  279 329 447
7/24   213  60 16   0   8  16  41   7   3  282 336 469  
6/26   213  60 16   0   8  16  41   7   3  282 336 469
5/21   123  32  6   0   6   8  16   6   0  260 311 455
5/1     68  18  2   0   3   4   8   4   0  265 306 426  

Hank has been fighting injuries for the second half of the season. It's affected both his playing time (obviously) and his numbers when he's been in the lineup, but he continues to demonstrate good power relative to his league.


Terry Evans, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    439 138 37   4  14  21 110  22   9  314 347 513
7/24   341 106 28   3  13  12  87  15   6  311 334 525
6/26   260  86 23   3  11  11  60  13   6  331 358 569
5/21   156  50 13   3   6   9  42  11   4  321 355 558 

Evans has drawn some walks in the last month, but it's still not quite enough for a guy who doesn't project to be any better than a .250 hitter in the bigs.


Nick Gorneault, OF, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    433 107 20   1   6  56 103  16   6  247 337 409
7/24   341  80 17   0  12  41  83  12   4  235 322 390
6/26   276  60 12   0   9  35  63  11   3  217 310 359
5/21   151  36 10   0   3  18  34   8   2  238 327 364
5/1     81  15  4   0   3   9  17   5   2  185 283 346

Nick didn't really start hitting anything like himself until the end of June, having raised his batting average 30 points in the last two months. Still, a disappointing year for a guy who, it feels, has been at AAA forever.


Christopher Pettit, LF, A+ Rancho Cucamonga, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    235  76 18   1   9  29  40  12   2  323 403 523
7/24   124  44  8   1   8  16  23   9   2  355 433 629
6/26    22   2  0   0   0   1   6   0   0  091 130 091

Remember thou art mortal. Chris Pettit has stopped treating baseball like a videogame, going only 32 for his last 111, a horrific batting average of .288. That's right: in his slump, he hits 288/363/405. His control of the strike zone isn't mindblowing, but it's solid, and he's also been getting a lot of time in center field, showing valuable defensive versatility.


Sean Rodriguez, SS, AA Arkansas, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    468 116 30   2  13  48 126  13   7  248 339 404
7/24   371  93 24   1  11  35  99  11   6  251 338 410
6/26   278  71 17   1  10  28  76   9   4  255 350 432
5/23   143  36  9   0   6  19  35   6   3  252 374 441
5/1     81  25  6   0   4  12  21   3   3  309 423 531

Rodriguez is only four months older than Pettit, and a level higher, but, still, his AVG, OBP, and SLG are all below the Texas League average despite his playing in a hitters' park. That's not what we particularly wanted to see.


Mark Trumbo, 1B, A Cedar Rapids, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    443 117 25   2  13  28  84  10   8  270 318 427
7/24   340  97 20   2   9  23  73  10   5  285 334 435
6/26   242  68 16   1   7  16  53   3   4  281 327 442
5/23   117  27  6   0   3   5  30   1   2  231 266 359
5/1     49  10  1   0   1   2  16   0   2  204 245 286

A bit of a slump from the power prospect, but, like several of our hitters at Cedar Rapids, he's still demonstrating good power relative to the league. Last season he struck out 99 times in only 428 AB, so he seems to be making progress there, though his walks are also down quite a bit (from 44).


Brandon Wood, SS, AAA Salt Lake, BR/TR

When    AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Now    397 105 21   1  20  43 109  10   1  264 335 474
7/24   313  82 18   1  16  39  80   8   1  262 343 479
6/26   254  68 18   1  13  34  69   8   1  268 355 500
5/23   131  31  8   0   5  18  38   3   0  237 331 412
5/1     84  22  6   0   3  11  28   2   0  262 351 440

I think he's going to need another year. There are things to like: Brandon continues to draw the base on balls, and his strikeouts, while still prodigious, are down considerably from last season. But as of right now, I'm not convinced he's a .200 hitter in the major leagues. If he sticks at third, he projects to a good-fielding Dean Palmer. That's still a solid player on the corner, though obviously that kind of offense would be more valuable from a good-fielding shortstop, a capability Wood may still have within him.


Watch Out:

Who       Lvl  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS  AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Bourjos    A  193  52  6   4   4  15  46  18   6  269 323 404
ClyFuller Azl 162  49  8   4   4  19  45  18   6  302 395 475
Mount      A  264  66 10   3   5  24  62  14   6  250 317 367
Ortiz     Azl  59  19  4   0   0   5  14   3   2  322 369 390
Peel       AA 310  79 20   2   7   6  43   2   0  255 284 400  
Phillips   A  399 104 11   7  13  12 135  33   4  261 296 421
Rivera                   has not played
Sandoval   AA 446 139 32   5  11  66  71  21  11  312 400 480
Statia     A+ 520 147 23   7   2  44  75  27   7  283 338 365
Sweeney    A  399 104 26   2  16  34  83   7   7  261 324 456

Peter Bourjos has had a bit of a (relative) power surge, but the average and strikeouts are less than exciting. Clay Fuller's numbers have come down just a bit in the last month, but that's still a solid getting-your-feet wet debut. Ryan Mount has been struggling since coming back from injury. Norberto Ortiz has also missed time, so those numbers are borderline useless. Aaron Peel -- guess what? -- has been injured for the last month. P.J. Phillips' slugging percentage is nearly 40 points better than his league's, which makes you wonder what he might be able to do if he, you know, could hit the ball; he also, ridiculously, successfully steals a base 39% of the time he reaches first (a bit of an estimate, as some of those SB are likely of third). Luis Rivera has yet to play. Freddy Sandoval leads his team in hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases (and also caught stealing, unfortunately), and is second in home runs and walks. Hainley Statia has seen some modest improvement in the last 31 days. Matthew Sweeney's numbers may not be jumping off the page, but he does lead the team in doubles, home runs, and walks.


PITCHERS

Nick Adenhart, RHSP, AA Arkansas

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   9  7   0  24 24 142.0 143  7 106  61  3.74
7/24  7  3   0  18 18 107.0 112  4  78  43  3.36  
6/26  6  2   0  14 14  83.7  87  4  61  37  3.46
5/23  3  2   0   8  8  47.3  43  0  35  21  2.68
5/1   3  1   0   5  5  33.7  24  0  27  10  0.80

There is some worry about Adenhart slumping of late, but the fact is he's a 20-year-old in AA. Yes, his strikeout rate is a bit low, and yes, his walk rate is high. And that strikeout rate is exaggerated; the Texas League strikes out 17.3% of batters and Adenhart whiffs 16.8%. He's holding his own against older competition, and I think he's going to be fine if healthy.


Jose Arredondo, RHSP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   2  4   4  27  0  34.0  44  4  33  11  6.09
7/24  0  2   2  15  0  16.0  24  3  13   6  9.56
6/26  0  0   2   4  0   3.7   7  0   5   4 18.90 A+
6/26  0  1  10  23  0  25.0  16  2  28  12  2.52 AA
5/23  0  1   6  16  0  19.0  12  2  22  10  3.32   
5/1   0  1   2   8  0  11.0   8  1  14   5  1.64

I don't know if Arredondo is going to be fine, but he's finally turned things around. As you can see, his demotion to the Cal League was not performance-based, though his horrific start for the Quakes certainly didn't contribute to his return to the higher level. But he has improved considerably over the last month on the mound, and hopefully has done so in other ways, too.


Gustavo Espinoza, LHRP, Arizona League

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   0  0   0  2   0   1.3  0   0   3   1  6.75

He lives!

For some reason BB-Ref lists Espinoza's ERA as 9.00, which is impossible when a guy has 1 1/3 innings. As you know, Gustavo has been hurt for some time, but so far his return has seen him strikeout three of five batters faced. Too early to know anything, but his stuff has been compared to Johan Santana's in the past (how's that for pressure?), but he clearly has raw ability, and hopefully can harness it -- and keep his arm attached to his body long enough to do so.


Stephen Marek, RHSP, A Rancho Cucamonga

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   8  9   0  23 23 121.0 123 15  95  45  4.61
7/24  5  7   0  17 17  89.0  91 10  70  35  4.75
6/26  5  4   0  13 13  69.7  64  5  56  30  4.02
5/23  3  2   0   7  7  38.7  34  2  23  15  3.52
5/1   1  0   0   3  3  15.0  12  1   7   6  2.40

A bit of a bounce-back.


Tommy Mendoza, A Cedar Rapids, RHSP

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   2  4   0  10  9  44.0  54  5  30  13  4.30
7/24  0  3   0   4  3  12.3  18  4  11   6  9.00

Tommy's starting to get things together, vastly improving his peripherals over his last six starts.


Darren O'Day, RHRP, AA Arkansas and A+ Rancho Cucamonga

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   3  3   7  25  0  25.3  24  2  19  11  3.24 
7/24  1  2   0   3  0  13.0  11  1  10   7  2.77
6/26  0  1   0   2  0   2.0   3  0   0   1  4.50 AA
6/26  4  0   0  24  0  24.0  10  1  26   6  0.75 A+ Final

O'Day continues to not dominate, though he does seem to be adjusting if his strikeouts and walk rates are any indication.


Sean O'Sullivan, RHSP, A Cedar Rapids

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now  10  6   0  23 23 144.3 122  6 119  38  2.19 
7/24  6  5   0  17 17 102.7  94  3  86  27  2.37
6/26  4  5   0  12 12  70.3  76  3  53  19  2.96
5/23  2  3   0   8  8  48.0  56  2  36  13  3.00
5/1   1  2   0   4  4  23.0  26  2  13   6  3.52

O'Sullivan has been en fuego for two months now. His K/9 IP is below the league average, but this demonstrates why using that measure is incomplete: he actually strikes out 20% of batters, while the league K's 19.7%. He doesn't rack up as many strikeouts because he doesn't face as many guys: Sean's WHIP of 1.11 blows away the league's 1.32.


Steve Shell, RHSP/RP, AAA Salt Lake

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   6  3   0  29  6  61.3  76 15  44  18  5.46 
7/24  4  3   0  21  4  45.0  56 12  35  14  5.60
6/26  4  1   0  14  3  31.0  39  7  23  11  4.94
5/23  1  0   0   5  1  12.0  18  3   4   2  3.75
5/1   0  0   0   2  1   7.0   9  1   3   1  1.29

Steven Shell finds himself moving in and out of the rotation this year, and doesn't seem to be finding much success in either role.


Rich Thompson, RHRP, AAA Salt Lake and AA Arkansas

When  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Now   3  0   1  14  0  22.3  15  2  29   3  2.05
7/24  1  0   0   4  0   7.7   6  0  12   2  1.23 AAA
7/24  2  3   0  21  3  49.3  34  5  50  14  2.02 AA Final
6/26  1  3   0  19  3  44.3  32  5  46  12  2.25

Personally, I am ready to see Rich Thompson in the major leagues. The guy is striking out 34% of the guys he sees carrying lumber, and our setup guy, as discussed yesterday, is running on fumes. I'd assume we'd see him in September and, if all goes well, maybe even October, too.

K-Thom?


Watch Out:

Who       Lvl  W  L  SV  G  GS  IP    H  HR  SO  BB   ERA
Bell       A   6  4   0  19 19 101.3 125  8  81  21  4.54
Bulger    AAA  5  2   9  46  0  49.0  49  4  77  23  3.86 
Green      AA 10  6   0  25 25 160.0 145 15  96  28  3.66
Madrigal    A  5  3  17  50  0  56.0  41  3  69  21  2.25 
Rodriguez  AA  0  6   0  42  1  64.7  72  6  38  30  4.34
Walden     R   1  1   0  12 12  48.3  37  2  48  17  3.75
Young      R   0  1   0   3  3   9.0  10  1   9   6  9.00

Trevor Bell has taken a bit of a beating over the last month. Jason Bulger should also be in the September mix. Nick Green has been so good over the last five starts (ten, actually) that I could probably justify moving him up to the main list if I weren't so lazy; it would also help if he had enough K's where I was convinced he was for real. Warner Madrigal not only continues to excel, but keeps getting better. Rafael Rodriguez has actually done quite well over the last month. Jordan Walden is really getting into the pitch of things. Young Il-Jung has been shut down due to injury.

A few random notes ... we have two first basemen off to good starts in the Arizona League, 19-year-old Christopher Garcia (333/480/474) and 21-year-old Seth Loman (291/442/537) ... there's Pac 10 double play duo playing for Tom Kotchman at Orem; though his numbers overall aren't overwhelming (as was to be expected) shortstop Andrew Romine has already hit two more home runs (3 total) than he did in his entire college career at the hitting paradise of Arizona State ... his parter, Hector Estrella, went to another Pac 10 "school" (to use the term loosely), is hitting well and controlling the strike zone ...

Labels: Watch List

Hey gang.

Yeah, I haven't been around lately.

Here's the thing: my general approach to writing this is that I want to either (1) tell my readership something it doesn't know or (2) provide some kind of different perspective on something that it does.

Often, there's a lot of overlap between things I don't know and things I assume y'all don't know, so for me it's fun to go through and figure out answers -- or, at least, potential answers -- and share them. That's the sort of post where I look at the Angels going from first to third or analyzing Casey Kotchman's batted balls or the efficacy of the team's bunting.

But, the fact is, there isn't really a lot that you don't know that I can tell you. I don't have a lot of readers here, and anyone who reads me is also reading the other Angel blogs in the Halosphere, all of whom do fine work, and most of which have a bigger readership than I do. So anyone reading this is someone who already knows quite a bit about the Angels, and that makes it hard for me to come up with stuff you don't know.

For instance, we all know about this:

IP   H  SO  BB   ERA
13  23  13  10  11.08

You know what that is, right? That's Scot Shields' line from July 15 forward. He's been a mess, and it's costing us games.

Why is this happening?

It struck me that Scot's command has seemed off, as evidenced by his high walk rate. He has thrown 315 pitches in those innings, only 179 (57%) of which are strikes. Major league pitchers throw strikes 63% of the time; Scot is usually around there (his season mark is 62%), but he's clearly been subpar over the past five weeks.

It gets worse once you consider that balls in play count as strikes. 23 hits in 13 innings is ... it's not good.

How does this performance compare to how Shields was doing before this slump?

Period    Pitches  Total Strikes  Hits  Non-H Strikes   %
4/2-7/15    744         474        27        447      60.1
7/15-Now    315         179        23        156      49.5

For the first three months of the season (which included an early slump), 60% of Shields' pitches were what we might consider "effective strikes"; strikes of swinging, called, foul, or a batted ball out. For the last five weeks, less than half of his pitches have been of this nature!

As you may recall, Scot was struggling back in May, which I discussed here. Let's break down it down even further, as he heated up pretty much right after I made that post:

Period    Pitches  Total Strikes   %   Hits  Non-H Strikes   %     ERA
4/2-4/9      98          63      64.3    2         61      62.2   0.00
4/10-5/14   247         152      61.5    7        145      58.7   4.80
5/15-7/14   413         269      65.1   18        251      60.8   0.32
7/15-Now    315         179      56.8   23        156      49.5  11.08

Well, that makes it all pretty obvious, doesn't it? He's not throwing strikes, and, when he is, they're getting hit. He doesn't have command. Even his prior slump isn't out of range with what he does when totally on, which was a sign that a turnaround was likely; this current slump is far, far worse, and I don't know what to make of it. He simply can't locate his pitches.

Now is that problem physical, mechanical, or psychological?

I don't know. There's nothing about this I can tell you that you don't already know. But if he can't get it figured out, our ability to win close games is going to be severely hampered, and so will this team's chances of winning anything worthwhile.

NOTE: Yes, this post title (or, rather, its inspiration would have been better-suited to a post about Ervin Santana's return to the rotation. But I didn't post anything then, so what am I gonna do?

Labels: Scot Shields

Matt Harvey, our third-round pick and an acclaimed first-round talent, appears to have gone unsigned by August 15 deadline.

I'm not sure how I feel about this. Harvey is a highly-regarded talent, and apparently Eddie Bane claimed he could be major league-ready in three years. (Of course, didn't he also say Kendry Morales was MLB-ready when we signed him?) We didn't have a first-round draft pick, our high pick being Florida high school pitcher Jonathan Bachanov in the supplemental round, so it seems like we'd have the money.

But Harvey has a scholarship at North Carolina, a college powerhouse (from whom we've already robbed Nick Adenhart) and was "advised" by Scott Boras, so he probably did have unusual leverage, and it would seem that whatever he wanted was more than the Angels thought he was worth. Assuming the Angels are right, then obviously they were right not to sign him at an inflated price.

(Interestingly, former professional pitcher and online mechanics guru Carlos Gomez is not impressed by Harvey's mechanics. Carlos likes a faster motion, and Harvey's is almost painfully slow [the MLB.com scouting report agreed that he needed to speed it up], so that's part of it. Of course, there are two sides to that coin: his mechanics may be suboptimal now, but if he's already this good with those mechanics, imagine how good he could be with some help!)

One cost to drafting Harvey and not signing him is that we lost our third-round pick. What is a third-round pick to us?

Well, last year we drafted Russell Moldenhauer. We didn't sign him, and he went on to start at the University of Texas, hitting 278/349/479 as a true freshman in the Big 12.

Other recent third-round picks have turned out better. Sean O'Sullivan and Sean Rodriguez both came in the third round, and other mentionable prospects taken in the round have included Steve Shell, Jake Woods, and Tommy Murphy. Scot Schoeneweis, Rance Mulliniks, and Carney Lansford were also third-round picks.

Also: two members of the All Time Angel lineup: Wally Joyner and Tim Salmon. (See the whole list here.)

So, it has some value. I have no way of evaluating if this turned out well for us, but I guess we'll know eventually.